Islamic parties to remain unpopular in 2009: Survey

link for the survey result : (LSI)

Support for Islamic-based parties is expected to remain low in the 2009 elections as Muslims look set to vote for nationalist political groups promoting better welfare for the public, according to a new survey released Thursday.

It suggested the political stance of Muslim voters would stay unchanged from previous general elections.

The poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) found only 16.6 percent of 1,239 Muslim voters surveyed would vote for Islamic parties in the 2009 legislative election.

"Sixty percent of voters would cast their ballots for nationalist parties such as the Golkar Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Democratic Party," LSI researcher Dodi Ambardi told a media conference at the launch of the survey.

The survey, conducted from September 8-20, revealed 24.4 percent of respondents were still undecided.

"Islamic parties have never won the majority of votes in Indonesia, and the trend looks set to continue into the 2009 elections," Dodi said.

There are at least nine Islamic parties contesting the elections, including the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Reform Star Party (PBR).

The survey found the PKS, which won 7.3 percent of votes in the 2004 election, would likely emerge as the most popular Islamic party, followed by the fractured PKB.

However, only 6 percent of respondents agreed the PKS ran programs aimed at improving public welfare -- much lower than the 15 percent siding with Golkar.

In addition, 76 percent of respondents listed economic and social welfare as their top priority, compared with only 15 percent who prioritized national unity.

Another 8 percent considered law enforcement the definitive issue, and only 0.8 percent put morality and religious affairs at the top of their list.

Dodi said Islamic parties should promote pluralism and economic issues, rather than focus on Islamism, if they wanted to garner more votes.

Data from the LSI shows Islamic parties last secured a considerable number of votes (43 percent) back in the 1955 elections.

Since then, the numbers have continued to decrease, down to 38 percent in the 1999 and 2004 elections.

The survey also found the Megawati Soekarnoputri-led PDI-P had the biggest support from Muslim voters, with 19 percent, followed by Golkar with 18 percent.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party was popular with 11 percent of Muslim voters.

PKS official Rozikum agreed Islamic parties needed to promote broader issues touching on public interests to win the hearts of Muslim voters.

"It is our experience that when we try to promote such issues as good governance, we get more support, like in the 2004 elections," he said.

However, he said the use of the term "Islamic party" in the LSI survey was inaccurate.

"We see many parties, including Golkar, the PDI-P and the Democratic Party, now competing to declare themselves Islamic parties. Their leaders are even more Islamic than us," he said.

Greg Fealy, a researcher from the School of Pacific and Asian Studies at Australian National University, said in a recent lecture at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) that the weak leadership of Islamic parties and their ignorance of the principle of pluralism would lead to their defeat in the 2009 legislative elections.
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Dalam sejarah politik Indonesia, partai Islam tidak pernah menjadi kekuatan mayoritas di pentas politik nasional.
Kecenderungan demikian masih berlanjut hingga tahun ini, dan kemungkinan juga dalam Pemilu 2009 nanti.
Menjelang Pemilu 2009, di antara partai Islam yang mengalami kemajuan berarti dilihat dari sikap elektoral pemilih adalah PKS. Tapi kemajuan PKS ini tidak atau belum mengancam partai-partai non-Islam, terutama PDIP, Golkar, dan Demokrat. Tiga partai ini cenderung memimpin dalam sikap elektoral selama empat tahun terakhir.
Meningkatnya dukungan pada PKS di satu pihak, dan di pihak lain partai-partai non-Islam juga cenderung meningkat, mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan dukungan pada PKS terjadi dengan menggerogoti partai-partai Islam yang lain.
Mengapa politik elektoral Islam cenderung di bawah politik elektoral non-Islam?
Muslim Indonesia cukup mampu mengidentifikasi identitas partai, yakni mampu menunjukan mana partai Islam dan mana bukan partai Islam, mana yang paling Islam dan mana yang kurang Islam.
Di antara partai-partai Islam yang ada, PKS dinilai partai yang paling Islam.
Pemilih juga mampu menunjuk mana partai yang paling punya komitmen pada Pancasila dan mana yang kurang. Di antara partai-partai politik yang ada, Partai Golkar dan PDIP dipandang sebagai partai yang paling punya komitmen pada Pancasila.
Ketika pemilih menunjuk PKS, PKB, dan PPP sebagai partai yang paling Islam dan Golkar dan PDI Perjuangan yang paling kurang Islam, di satu pihak, dan di pihak lain menunjuk Golkar dan PDI Perjuangan yang paling Pancasilais dan PKS, PPP, dan PKB yang kurang Pancasilais, maka pemilih Muslim Indonesia membedakan secara jelas antara identitas politik Islam dan identitas politik Pancasila.
Karena itu, tidak bisa membuat klaim bahwa partai yang Islami akan otomatis partai yang Pancasilais, atau sebaliknya.
Source : LSI and Jakarta Post